Chapter III - Inflection Point: The Race to the Time Bank
Axiom 3: The inflection occurs when cost per effective robot-hour ≈ cost per human-hour (adjusted for reliability and uptime).
At this equilibrium, robots cease to be capital goods and become labor itself - liquidity of embodied time.
Cost Crossover Thresholds
When these thresholds are crossed, deployment accelerates non-linearly.
Energy as Constraint
Every embodied hour consumes energy. Scaling robotic labor therefore requires Energy Utilization Capacity (EUC) - the total energy infrastructure capable of powering robot fleets. China generated 10,000 TWh of electricity in 2024, more than the U.S. and EU combined. U.S. grid capacity is tightening; fossil dependence rising. Data centers and AI loads are competing for the same kilowatts. Thus, even if U.S. robotics improves technically, the energy ceiling flattens the curve.
Modeled Trajectories
- China (Aggressive): b ≈ 0.20 orders/year, inflection ≈ 2029.
- U.S. (Constrained): b ≈ 0.12 orders/year, inflection ≈ 2031–32.
If sustained, China's embodied productivity doubles every 18 months, the U.S. every 3 years - still fast, but divergent.